Exit Polls vs Early Trends: Big Gaps Emerge Across States in 2026 Assembly Elections

As counting progresses for the 2026 Assembly elections, early trends have revealed significant differences between exit poll predictions and actual results across several key states. While exit polls offered a broad sense of political direction, the real-time numbers suggest that their accuracy varied widely, ranging from near precision in some states to major miscalculations in others.

Voting across states concluded in phases through April, with West Bengal recording an impressive overall turnout of 92.47 percent across two phases held on April 23 and 29. Other states like Assam, Kerala, and Puducherry voted on April 9, while Tamil Nadu went to the polls on April 23. Exit polls were released immediately after voting ended, but as always, they remained projections, not final outcomes.

In West Bengal, where 294 seats are at stake and 148 are needed for a majority, exit polls painted a mixed picture. Agencies like P-Mark, Matrize, and Chanakya Strategies predicted an advantage for the BJP, while People’s Pulse projected a strong comeback for the Trinamool Congress (TMC). Most estimates suggested a close contest between the two parties. However, early trends show the BJP crossing the majority mark with leads in over 154 seats, while the TMC trails far behind at around 82. This indicates that while some exit polls got the direction right by predicting a BJP edge, they significantly underestimated the scale of the shift and overestimated TMC’s performance.

The biggest upset has come from Tamil Nadu, where exit polls appear to have failed dramatically. Most agencies projected the DMK alliance to win comfortably, with the AIADMK trailing and actor Vijay’s TVK seen as a minor force. Only Axis My India hinted at a stronger showing for TVK. In reality, early trends show TVK leading in over 100 seats, completely altering the state’s political landscape. The DMK alliance is reduced to around 51 seats, while AIADMK holds around 72. This stark contrast highlights how exit polls struggled to capture the rise of a new political force and remained anchored in traditional Dravidian political patterns.

In Assam, however, exit polls have proven to be largely accurate. With 126 seats and a majority mark of 64, most pollsters predicted a comfortable return for the BJP-led alliance. Early trends showing the alliance leading in 78 to 90 seats align closely with these projections. Both the winner and the approximate seat range were correctly anticipated, making Assam one of the most reliable cases for exit poll accuracy in this election cycle.

Kerala presents a partially accurate picture. Exit polls consistently gave an edge to the Congress-led UDF, predicting a possible change in power. Early trends confirm this shift, with UDF leading close to 90 seats—well above the majority mark of 71. However, the scale of this victory appears larger than projected, as most exit polls had estimated a narrower margin. This suggests that while voter sentiment was captured correctly, the intensity of the swing was underestimated.

In Puducherry, exit polls again got the direction right but misjudged the margin. Most projections gave the BJP-led NDA alliance 16–20 seats in the 30-member VidhanSabha. Early trends, however, show the NDA leading on 13 seats, with the Congress-DMK alliance at 7. The outcome suggests a closer contest than predicted.

Overall, the early trends reinforce a key takeaway: exit polls are better at indicating who might win than at predicting how decisively they will win. They tend to perform well in politically stable states like Assam but struggle in regions experiencing shifts or the emergence of new players, such as Tamil Nadu. In states like West Bengal and Kerala, they captured the direction but failed to accurately estimate margins.

As the final results are awaited, these elections once again highlight that exit polls should be treated as indicators, not definitive forecasts.

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